Federalist Reform for Burma

By Benedict Rogers: CSW

The best description of Burma today is that it is the best of times and the worst of times. Last month, I witnessed an unprecedented atmosphere of hope while travelling in Rangoon. The previous week, in Kachin State, near the China border, I heard some of the worst stories of human rights violations that I have ever heard.

Diplomats around the world are excited that Burma is changing, but they must recognize one central issue which has yet to be resolved—the question of the ethnic minorities. Yesterday was Burma's Union Day, the 65th anniversary of the Panglong Agreement that the Shan, Chin and Kachin ethnic groups signed with the independence leader Aung San in 1947. This guaranteed ethnic groups equal rights and a degree of autonomy within a federal system, but after Aung San's assassination later that year, it was never implemented. Over sixty years of civil war ensued.

The country's military is not making this situation better. Last June, the Burma Army broke a ceasefire with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) that had lasted 17 years. The conflict escalated, with widespread attacks on ethnic civilians and the displacement of over 50,000 people. I met a woman whose husband's legs and arms were chopped off before he was shot. I met another woman whose husband was shot dead in a hut in his paddy field. A 12-year-old boy described how his mother was shot as she tried to pack up her home before the Burma Army came. Churches were looted and desecrated.

A pregnant woman hid for two days under a bed, without food or water, as bullets flew over her. She heard a Burma Army officer tell his men "if you see someone, kill them." One Kachin man who had been forced to flee his village told me: "My grandfather fought in the Second World War, and he said even the Japanese were not as cruel as the Burma Army."

In December, the Burmese government proposed formal peace talks with the KIO, which is a welcome step. Ceasefire processes with other armed ethnic groups, most significantly the Karen, began recently. Last month, a first round of talks between the government and the KIO were held, and further talks are expected.

One key test will be the government's ability to control the military. President Thein Sein has twice ordered the military to stop attacking civilians, but these have fallen on deaf ears. Although the president and almost all his ministers are former generals, they lead a nominally civilian government, and it would appear that his order is not being passed down the military chain of command. It is not certain whether this is defiance by regional commanders on the frontline, or the army chief General Min Aung Hlaing. Either way, it indicates the fragility of the reform process and the challenge of taming the military.

More pressingly, the government has to be willing to find a political solution for the ethnic groups. The KIO, who seek autonomy not secession, have emphasized that they want peace, but it must be genuine. The 17-year ceasefire that recently ended was simply an absence of war—no political solution was found.

This time, the KIO want a political dialogue to accompany a ceasefire, and have proposed a three-step process: a peace agreement, a national convention involving all the ethnic nationalities, and the implementation of a political solution. In essence, they want to recapture the spirit of Panglong. All this is achievable if the government and the democracy movement work together with Burma's ethnic nationalities, especially by involving international expertise.

The silver lining here is that in Rangoon, the environment lends itself to such possibilities. A year ago, I was deported from the country. A military intelligence officer escorting me to the plane told me there was "no change, no change". Last month, I was able to return to Burma on a valid visa, with no sign of being watched.

T-shirts with Aung San Suu Kyi's face are prominently displayed on street stalls, while pirated copies of the movie "The Lady" about the Nobel Laureate are sold at traffic lights. I met some of the most high-profile activists, including Ms. Suu Kyi and the recently released 88 Generation Student leaders, who had spent years in prison. They optimistically talked about working with government reformers.

Ms. Suu Kyi and her party are contesting parliamentary by-elections in April, and it is highly likely they will win many of the 48 seats available. While this will not in itself change the country, it will give democrats a foothold. If they can work with reformers in the governing party to amend the constitution and repeal unjust legislation, Burma could be on the brink of real progress.

Yet, Burma's true and lasting prosperity hinges on resolving the ethnic situation. The rest of the world must insist that President Thein Sein respond to the KIO's proposal and establish an inclusive, nationwide political dialogue with ethnic minorities. Mr. Thein Sein particularly needs to address the current regime's misunderstanding of federalism. The military fears it, believing it would result in the breakup of the country. In reality, federalism is the structure that will keep the country together.

Ms. Suu Kyi's presence is especially key since, as Aung San's daughter, she can recapture the spirit of Panglong. She can work with the government and the ethnic nationalities to take this process forward. When Burma's ethnic nationalities, who make up 40% of the population and inhabit 60% of the land, can live in peace, with equal rights, autonomy and respect for their ethnic, religious and cultural identity, we can truly say Burma has changed.

Mr. Rogers works for the international human rights organisation Christian Solidarity Worldwide, based in London, and is the author of "Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant" (Silkworm, 2010).